![]() ![]() This firstly occurred using linearly increasing GHG concentrations, and later using the SRES emission scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000) as input to the climate models. The second generation studies performed transient climate change experiments that included dynamics resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions and more recently, ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interactions. In the first generation of climate change studies, analysts used GCMs to simulate an equilibrium response of the climate system under an increased but constant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Since their first use in the 1980s they have largely evolved. Many of such future studies are done to evaluate climate adaptation strategies.Ĭlimate change scenarios combine emission scenarios and resulting climate effects. Scenarios are particularly used to explore potential ranges of outcomes due to uncertainties for example to explore different futures, to assess impacts of changes in boundary conditions, and to identify policy actions and assess their robustness across a range of possible future conditions. ![]() Van Notten 2005, Lempert 2013, Van Vuuren et al 2014). Scenarios are descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures based on coherent and internally consistent assumptions that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future developments (e.g. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static 'endpoint' projections. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. Farming changes the chemical composition of soil, mud, and rock.Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Acid rain caused by pollution can eat away at rocks and minerals. Mining, of course, changes the location and condition of rocks and soil. Human activities also have a major impact on rock. For example, bat guano and other animal remains contain reactive chemicals that can affect minerals. ![]() Frozen water expands, making the cracks wider and further weathering the rock.Īnimals can also effect geochemistry. Once the rock is broken up, water can get into the cracks and oxidize or freeze. ![]() New, weaker minerals are often more brittle this makes it easier for plant roots to break up the rock. Plant roots also use carbon dioxide, thus changing the chemistry of the soil. As roots expand into rock, acids can change the minerals in the rock. Plant roots are also an important source of chemical weathering. Lichens, a combination of algae and fungi, produce a weak acid that can dissolve rock. Lichens can have a profound effect on rock. Living organisms perform chemical reactions to obtain minerals from soil and rocks. ![]()
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